Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.713282 2.900174 3.100454 3.332264 3.594741 3.884613 4.231606
2025-03-16 2.443382 2.694936 2.979646 3.329938 3.755388 4.263783 4.930880
2025-03-23 2.294198 2.586374 2.930163 3.372747 3.940405 4.664064 5.693209
2025-03-30 2.141028 2.450378 2.824405 3.321895 3.986476 4.877500 6.231515
2025-04-06 2.017017 2.336159 2.730501 3.269208 4.013903 5.057131 6.741324
2025-04-13 1.896853 2.216596 2.618185 3.178114 3.973141 5.126935 7.086621
2025-04-20 1.843012 2.176519 2.603657 3.214201 4.110439 5.471338 7.945201
2025-04-27 1.806763 2.155762 2.611407 3.279124 4.293368 5.909269 9.078568
2025-05-04 1.772150 2.134246 2.615356 3.336912 4.469208 6.360716 10.376513
2025-05-11 1.712136 2.075026 2.562998 3.306679 4.500849 6.565668 11.223466
2025-05-18 1.659301 2.022777 2.517012 3.281698 4.536922 6.781892 12.170709
2025-05-25 1.612030 1.975847 2.475718 3.260227 4.575444 7.007042 13.228485
2025-06-01 1.565820 1.929221 2.433550 3.236114 4.609943 7.236591 14.427817
2025-06-08 1.528478 1.893446 2.405285 3.231840 4.678763 7.549283 16.050369
2025-06-15 1.506100 1.877665 2.405265 3.272376 4.832295 8.073954 18.740904
2025-06-22 1.461864 1.828833 2.353441 3.224014 4.814226 8.207913 20.115713
2025-06-29 1.419963 1.781907 2.302471 3.173895 4.787912 8.318398 21.502530
2025-07-06 1.371218 1.723587 2.232030 3.087177 4.683054 8.221651 21.914826
2025-07-13 1.355183 1.712288 2.232857 3.121540 4.820593 8.759161 25.997020
2025-07-20 1.346504 1.711281 2.249213 3.183330 5.020318 9.513265 32.701944
2025-07-27 1.336510 1.707837 2.261391 3.238294 5.212510 10.308269 42.051126
2025-08-03 1.308478 1.676521 2.228137 3.209542 5.220541 10.559698 47.678954
2025-08-10 1.282893 1.648152 2.198545 3.185779 5.237389 10.845792 54.976560